THE GOLDBUG DIARIES 2004
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Companies quoted on USA Stock Exchanges
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In 2003 retail investors started
to regain their confidence from March onwards. Analysts are predicting
anything between a 10%
to 15% capital gain for 2004, predicting that the upward movement will
be
during the first 6 months and
thereafter at best a sidewise movement thereafter, a worst a sharp
downturn. Goldbug will
be entering the market early and thereafter will pick very selectively
Yours Goldbug (31 December 2003)
9 January - I have decided to take
anyalsts advice and make a purchase of a FTSE 100 stock
by adding to the holding in BT
Group plc at 185.48p. During the last week one analyst
has selected
this company's stock as a tip for
2004 drawing the investor's attention to the fact that the
share price has not reflected the
improvement made by the company last year in its
restructuring. Followers
of this domain will remember that one analyst gave a target
price of 250p for this company
mid last year. Sticking my head out I am looking for
275p/300p by the end of the year.
I am also adding to the holding
in Mitchells and Butler plc
at 228p an ex-FTSE 100 share whose
price target a few week ago was
given as 300p by one analyst.
I have currently got a pending order
on one Hong Kong stock and one Spanish one. I should have
waited to buy Telepizza as I could
have got it 10 cents cheaper had I purchased this year than what
I paid on the 12th of December,
but who can ever get the timing exactly right. I think that investors
that followers of the column will
admit that the performance in 2003 was pretty
good. I think that
the Spanish market will be good
again in 2004 and whilst not anticipating adding to the holdings,
will stick my head out once again
and predict that Telefonica
will go over € 15 - Sacyr Vallehermoso
€ 15 - Iberdrola
possibly € 20 and that NH Hotels
could move nearer its all time high which was
if I remember correctly about €
16. BCH I feel should
go at least to € 12. I will make no predictions
for Tulips
or Service
Point Solutions as the share price performance I feel will be dictated
as to
whether or not there is a run away
bull market for the rest of the year.
I did manage to complete the order
of the Spanish stock on the 9th - Europistas
at € 4.98. Investors
looking for yield as opposed to
growth should look at this one. At € 5 the yield is 6.40%.
One of
their motor ways is the San Sebastian/
Bilbao/Burgos. They also own 25% of the one running from
Malaga to Algeciras which will
benefit from the construction boom on the Costa del Sol.
7 March - still not very active
in this market, but now feel that another Spanish Motorway stock
could be worth investing in - Abertis
SA I feel could reach € 15 this year.
Online Shopping at6 August - I have not been active so far this year as I have felt since the new year that it was not one for investing in, especially with what is happening in Iraq which since the invasion of that country I have felt could be another Vietnam. There was an open offer from Bizspace plc which I had to do al ot of soul seating as to whether to subscribe or not? The company had not allowed overseas subscribe to the open offer late last year at a lower price and yet they could this year. Was this ethical? The other factor was that whilst their were funds to take up the open offer in full, had I done so it would have meant that this company would have had a disproportionate investment in one company as the norm is a maximum of GPB 5,000 so a compromise was struck and enough shares purchased to bring the holding up to 25,000 and as the company has started to pay a dividend that the income might be GPB 240 a year, rising every year. I just hope that the company is allowed to remain public as previous companies that have been floated off from Safeland plc - Safestore plc taken private and possibly and offer for Hercules plc (remember shareholders you paid over 500p for an open offer in this company) Subsequent event - 20 September 2004, that Britannic Investment Managers Limited purchased 2,685,648 ordinary 0.05p shares in the Company representing 3.42% of the issued share capital of the Company.
August 27 - In Spain virtually the whole country take their annual holiday and I purchased more shares in Antena 3 Television SA at 41.17 euros. Subsequent event - UBS has started to cover two Spanish Media stocks - Telecinco and Antena 3 (Madrid: A3TV.MC) giving both a buy rating giving target prices of 16,8 euros and 58,8 euros respectively. I also purchased more shares in Puleva Biotech SA (Pink Sheets: PUVAF) at 2.53 euros with an order to purchase Jazztel (Pink Sheets: JAZZF) at 0.26 cents which was executed on 7 September. I felt that this was an interesting company to add to the portfolio and that the support seemed to have settled around 25 cents (26 cents to buy) - Subsequent event - the shares were suspended at 0.28 euros pending an announcement of a new shareholder. On 23 September it was announced that Leopoldo Fernández Pujals would take a 24,9% interest in the company and lead the company. He was the founder of Telepizza which was a favoured stock with investors and went to 10 euros whilst he headed the company. In 1999 he obtained 300 million euros for his holding and the value of his investment in Jazztel is approximately 62 million.
29 October - I decided to purchase Recoletos Grupo de Comunicacion SA, (Mercado Continuo: REC ) at €5.98 the Spanish publisher of the financial newspaper Expansión (60% Market share) and the very popular Sports newspaper Marca. They have a 50% interest in a Portuguese Financial "Economica" and it has acquired Meximerica Media and has launched a new Spanish language daily (Rumbo) in the US aimed a the important Hispanic community there. The publisher is pitching advertisers a potential Hispanic market with a purchasing power of more than $13 billion in San Antonio. According to U.S. Census Bureau figures. Meximerica will expand publishing to Houston in August and the Lower Rio Grande Valley and Austin, Texas. in September. It has TV and radio operations, but the share price does not seem to have reflected these interests compared with Antena 3 and Telecinco whose share prices have moved strongly upward during the last two months. One years sales growth was 25.4% (Source Hoovers). It has an attractive dividend of 0.45 cents - (high/low €5.35 - € 7.54)
If it can break the resistance of 6.09 euros it could make up the lost ground compared to IBEX 35 INDEX. of - 7.78% and move to 6.49 euros before April 2005. (Professional opinion)
E-Commerce@theMall (USA)
E-Commerce@theEuroMall (Europe)
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